Electability

Last Tuesday Sen. Clinton pulled off a near sweep in Ohio. She won all but four most solidly democratic counties (all of which will go democrat in the General regardless of the nominee) by winning over a majority of almost every major demographic group, most importantly white working-class voters, that Democrats will need to claim victory in November.

Obama has staked his claim on early national polls, which also show Clinton beating McCain by a slightly smaller margin. Of course early polling once showed Giuliani running away with the Republican nomination so their credibility is highly speculative at best. Obama’s claim of support among independents and republicans voters makes for good campaign speeches, but it is hardly evidence of his chances in the General Election. Unfortunately for Obama and the Democratic Party, his appeal to cross-party voters is artificially skewered by states that have held open Democratic primaries and closed Republican contests, and most of the small states in which this support has put him over the top will almost certainly go for McCain by 60% or greater come November.

As the primary goes on North Carolina and ultimately to Pennsylvania, Clinton can continue to win, and in doing so claim the support of democratic voters and prove her appeal as the stronger general election candidate.